Historically it has been relatively easy to predict what will come out of Nikons production plants, but this has changed to be increasingly more and more difficult in the later years. A couple of reasons for that are the economy crises and the flooding of a Thailand plant in 2011. So I guess this could be the reason that it wasn’t an immediate replacement for the D300s and the D700 and by this messing up the time line a bit. Lately they’ve also struggled with reorganization and saving money because of shrinking market for compacts and DSLR’s.
So what to expect for 2018?
To start with DX, I think we will see two new cameras this year. A new D3500 with some minor upgrades, and a D500s with some (s)-enhancements. Both of them most likely in the middle to second half of the year. Hopefully some improvements on AF with video and 4K?
With FX I wonder what will happen with the Df? Will it slowly die or will it be a Df II? Quite frankly I don’t think it will be a replacement. Further one with an insecure future is the D610, will there ever be a D620 or will it somewhat merge with the D750? Honestly I think it won’t be a D620. Talking about the D750, this one is also way overdue to be replaced, and with this I think the D760 will be announced in a few months. I would also like to think that there will be both a D5s and a D5x during the coming year, but not completely convinced if both will happen.
There has been a lot of talk about mirrorless in the last years, and I think there will be some activities from Nikon in the end of the year regarding that, if it will be based on DX or FX, I’m not sure. Maybe both? Not likely.
DX are APS-C size crop sensor.
FX are full frame sensor.
This one is a hard one. Nikon seems to think that we need other lenses than I would like, and the last time I was right was when the 24-120 f/4 VR was released back in 2010, so I guess this would be more a wish list than a pure prediction!
First off with DX, and here it’s more like a black hole as more or less everything is missing of high quality lenses. A fast wide angle zoom in a 8-20 f/2.8 VR, an updated 17-55 f/2.8 VR and a 55-150 f/2.8 VR. For those who don’t need f/2.8, I would like a f/4 line like a 8-20 f/4 VR, a 16-80 f/4 VR and a 70-200 f/4 VR.
For FX I think there could be time to update the already legendary 14-24 f/2.8 with new optics and VR, then the f/2.8 holy trinity is complete again with E-design and VR, then the f/4 holy trinity in 16-35 f/4 VR, 24-120 f/4 VR and the 70-200 f/4 VR should be updated to. Out of the last three I think it’s only the 70-200 that still has good performance on the newer high Mpx cameras. What about AF-P FX lenses? So far we’ve only got a 70-300 VR, maybe time for a AF-P 16-70 f/3.5-5-6 VR too?
I’ve sold off most of my primes, so I don’t have strong wishes there, but the current 50mm should definitely be replaced soon, both the f/1.8 and the f/1.4. In addition Canon users like to brag about their f/1.2 lenses, so why not a 35 f/1.2 VR, 50 f/1.2 VR and a 85 f/1.2 VR to equalize the bragging rights a bit?
So, as you see a lot of lenses. And that’s the problem; Nikon has predictably only released 5-6 lenses a year and have done that for many years, making them lag behind more and more. Above I have 6 DX lenses and 9 or 10 FX lenses depending how you are counting. So is it realistic that we will see all this lenses in 2018? Not at all, maybe not even any! To be serious, I would very much like that there will be some higher end DX zooms, and a replacement of the popular 24-120 f/4 VR. I also think we will see some more AF-P lenses of some kind.
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What are your predictions and/or wishes? What do you think about mine? Tell me in the comments below.